S&P 500 Surges to New Highs Amid Mixed Economic Signals

Episode 813 of DHUnplugged, titled Fear and Greed, published August 11, 2026 and hosted by Andrew Horowitz alongside JC Dvorak, tackles a market shaking off war, inflation, softening GDP, and tariff reversals to print new all-time highs. With roughly 80% of the S&P 500 already reported and nearly 90% beating EPS estimates, the hosts examine why investors are pricing in optimism ahead of Wednesday's CPI print and Thursday's PPI release, and whether the CNN Fear and Greed Index reading near 61 signals froth or a contrarian setup.

Horowitz and Dvorak walk listeners through several fast-moving threads shaping the tape this week:

• The Fear and Greed Index components, including Tom McClellan's Volume Summation Index and Horowitz's proprietary KRI (Key Reversal Indicator)
• Friday's jobs report: 4.1% unemployment, only 20,000 payrolls added, and a shrinking labor participation rate
• Oil's rebound after Scott Bessent's failed deal timeline, and a profitable client trade Horowitz doubled up on
• New 10 to 12% tariffs on 60 trading partners, 25-state lawsuits, and Nike's reported tariff refund
• Mega-cap free cash flow swings and Nvidia's $500 billion financing backstop

The conversation turns candid on behavioral finance, with Horowitz citing Daniel Crosby's work on loss aversion. "When people are freaking out, it's usually the time to get in. When people are like, oh my God, it's never gonna get worse, the market rally is gonna continue forever, it's like time to get out," Horowitz tells listeners. Dvorak pushes back, asking why proprietary signals used by shops like Jane Street stay private while retail-facing indicators become content. Horowitz's answer: "It's content. That's what it seems like to me at least."

Paragraph four goes deep on the mega-cap free cash flow picture that worried Horowitz heading into the quarter. Apple's free cash flow rose roughly $7.5 billion, or 31%, while Microsoft fell about $6 billion, Meta collapsed 91% on Mark Zuckerberg's renewed AI spending, Amazon swung $25 billion from positive $18 billion to negative $7.6 billion, Alphabet flipped negative, Tesla turned to a $1.09 billion outflow, and Intel worsened by $7.37 billion after a $20 billion secondary. Nvidia bucked the trend, adding $22.5 billion. The hosts also cover SoftBank's $2.2 billion quarterly profit driven by Masayoshi Son's Intel stake, ByteDance's OpenAI funding, and a heartfelt recap of the Fort Lauderdale meetup honoring the late John C. Dvorak, attended by roughly 35 listeners from across Florida.

DH Unplugged is a weekly investing and markets podcast hosted by Andrew Horowitz and JC Dvorak that blends market commentary, economic news, business trends, and offbeat cultural observations with a skeptical, humorous tone. Episodes cover Fed policy, earnings, commodities, tech, and consumer trends. Episode 813 is available now on the DHUnplugged website, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and Amazon Music/Podcasts.

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