DHUnplugged 813: Fear and Greed Amid Record Highs

In the latest episode of DHUnplugged, hosts Andrew Horowitz and JC Dvorak delve into a market that has shrugged off geopolitical tensions, inflation, and tariff reversals to reach new all-time highs. With about 80% of the S&P 500 having reported earnings and nearly 90% beating estimates, the conversation centers on investor optimism ahead of upcoming CPI and PPI data, and whether the CNN Fear and Greed Index near 61 indicates market froth or a contrarian opportunity. The episode, titled "Fear and Greed," dissects the components of the index, including Tom McClellan's Volume Summation Index and Horowitz's proprietary KRI indicator, while also examining the latest jobs report showing 4.1% unemployment and minimal payroll growth.

The hosts tackle a range of topics, from oil's rebound after Scott Bessent's failed deal timeline to new tariffs on 60 trading partners and Nike's reported tariff refund. A significant portion is devoted to mega-cap free cash flow swings, with Apple surging, Microsoft declining, and Meta's cash flow collapsing due to AI spending. Nvidia stands out with a $22.5 billion increase, while SoftBank's profit from its Intel stake and ByteDance's OpenAI funding also get attention. The episode also touches on behavioral finance, with Horowitz citing Daniel Crosby's work on loss aversion, emphasizing that moments of panic often present buying opportunities.

Listeners are treated to a candid discussion on why proprietary signals remain private while retail indicators become content, and a heartfelt recap of the Fort Lauderdale meetup honoring the late John C. Dvorak. DH Unplugged continues to blend market commentary with offbeat observations, making complex financial topics accessible and engaging. The episode is available on major podcast platforms, offering insights that are both timely and thought-provoking.