DALLAS, TX -- November 13th, 2025 -- Fold Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: FLD): Stonegate Capital Partners initiates their coverage on Fold Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: FLD). Fold delivered revenue of $7.4M, net income of $0.6M, and adj EBITDA of $(4.2)M as legacy products continued to scale. Operating KPIs moved in tandem as the Company saw $265M in total transaction volume for the quarter, 10K+ net new accounts, and 3K+ new verified accounts. As of 3Q25, new accounts rose 2.1 y/y while transaction volumes climbed ~41% y/y, and management reiterated typical seasonal strength. We note that the Company maintained almost 50% top line growth over last year, and it is our expectation that this strong growth momentum will be carried into a seasonally strong 4Q. Management noted that headcount has roughly doubled y/y while maintaining margin, demonstrating early operating leverage in the model. Overall, the quarter reflected improving operating leverage with focused, disciplined spend on distribution and product. 

Company Updates:

Momentum and Execution: Execution remains centered on opening the funnel and converting engagement into monetizable flow. The recent Bitcoin Gift Card launch now has retail distribution seen in ~2,000 Krogers, creating a mainstream on-ramp outside the app. Management has noted that this is the first step to what should be an expansive retailer footprint. With data from gift card sales still in the early innings we anticipate that this will lead to wallet expansion at a negative cost of acquisition to the Company. The Company has also engaged in a partnership with Steak ‘n Shake that rewards customers with a $5 Bitcoin Gift Card providing a scalable path for a broad retail distribution channel. Across major products, management indicated that unit economics are already positive at the product level, with the focus now on scaling distribution. Mid-funnel, Fold is expanding exchange access to more users and additional states and adding larger order funding options, including wires, which should lift average ticket and trading frequency.

Credit Card Catalyst for Next-Stage Growth: Fold’s Bitcoin Rewards Credit Card is emerging as the flagship growth lever, built with Visa and Stripe to deliver a premium, bitcoin native credit experience. Rewards are advertised up to 3.5 percent on every purchase with no categories or deposit requirements, with bonus earn up to 10 percent at top brands in the Fold network. Management reports the waitlist has surpassed 80,000 and targets initial distribution by year end with general access in 1Q26. The goal is to capture greater wallet share than debit and to turn everyday spend into durable engagement that cross sells into trading and custody. Management also highlighted the card as a high cross-sell engine.

Treasury & Capital Position: The Company held ₿1,526 in its investment treasury as of 3Q25, supporting a Bitcoin NAV of ~$160M. Management views the Bitcoin treasury as a differentiated, lower-cost source of growth capital relative to issuing traditional equity or term debt FLD has multiple funding levers, including a $250M equity purchase facility tied to product momentum and market windows. In the quarter FLD secured a $45.0M revolving credit facility to support future growth initiatives and strengthen the Company’s financial position.

Valuation: We use two comp analysis to value FLD. Our blended EV/Revenue analysis arrives at a valuation range of $5.42 to $7.71 with a mid-point of $6.57. Our EV/BTC NAV analysis arrives at a valuation range of $5.23 to $8.65 with a mid-point of $6.94.

About Stonegate
Stonegate Capital Partners is a leading capital markets advisory firm providing investor relations, equity research, and institutional investor outreach services for public companies. Our affiliate, Stonegate Capital Markets (member FINRA) provides a full spectrum of investment banking services for public and private companies.

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