DALLAS, TX -- November 14th, 2025 --  Aemetis, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMTX): Stonegate Capital Partners updates coverage on Aemetis, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMTX). Aemetis’ third-quarter results underscore a strengthening Dairy RNG platform supported by CARB pathway approvals, incremental digesters, and favorable policy momentum. Twelve operating digesters produced 114,000 MMBtu in the quarter and generated about $4.0M of revenue, with biogas sales fully monetizing seven newly approved LCFS pathways. Revenue was $59.2M, up $7M sequentially on India OMC orders and firmer California ethanol pricing/volumes. Aemetis signed equipment and installation contracts totaling $57M year-to-date across dairy RNG and the MVR project. Capacity is currently expected to reach 550,000 MMBtus by year end and is expected to further increase to 1.0M MMBtus by FY27. Monetization avenues on energy production now include sale of RNG molecules, D3 RINs, and Section 45Z production tax credits, providing multiple levers for recurring cash generation. 

Through Aemetis’ dairy RNG business, the Company is planning an initial sale of approximately $20M of Section 45Z and Section 48 credits following the September completion of the multi-dairy biogas digester, with management noting signed contracts and pathway approvals that enable recurring monetization going forward. AMTX expects 45Z monetization to become a recurring quarterly revenue item beginning in 4Q25, with initial sales monetizing the year-to-date credits generated. Commercial execution also advanced with agreements to deliver H₂S removal and compression, pipeline, and related equipment as part of the 2025 contracting activity, supporting continued scale-up of the dairy RNG platform.

In California Ethanol segment, Aemetis executed an EPC agreement with NPL to install a $30M Mechanical Vapor Recompression (MVR) system at the Keyes plant. The project is scheduled for completion in 2Q26; once operational, management projects $32M of incremental annual cash flow due to ~80% lower natural-gas usage, higher LCFS revenues from a double-digit CI reduction, and increased transferable 45Z credits. California policy tailwinds strengthened further as Gov. Newsom signed AB30, immediately allowing statewide E15 and expanding the potential ethanol market by more than 600 million gallons per year. India biodiesel delivered $14.5M of revenue on resumed OMC allocations, and the subsidiary continues to target an IPO in 2026.

In the third quarter of 2025, revenue was $59.2M, up $7.0M from 2Q25. Operating loss came in at $8.5M from $3.9M y/y, with SG&A up 15.5% sequentially. Net loss expanded to $23.7M from $18.0M. Cash increased to $5.6M at quarter. Notably, 3Q25 results reflect the benefit of fully monetized LCFS pathways in the biogas segment, with additional credit monetization expected as Section 45Z and Section 48 sales commence.

Policy Tailwinds to Drive Growth – Aemetis is ideally positioned to benefit from four major U.S. policy tailwinds accelerating demand for low-carbon fuels: (1) CARB’s long-duration LCFS framework with improving LCFS pricing; (2) Section 45Z production tax credits; (3) California’s adoption of E15 via AB30, which expands the addressable market and should enhance plant economics alongside the Keyes MVR project; and (4) ongoing state and federal clean-fuel mandates and incentives. Collectively, these factors, together with the signed EPC for MVR and the fully monetized RNG pathways, underpin the Company’s focus on margin expansion, recurring credit monetization, and disciplined project financing into 2026.

Valuation – We use a DCF Model when valuing AMTX. Our valuation model returns a valuation range of $9.93 to $20.48 with a midpoint of $14.06.

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