By: citybiz
August 28, 2025
Lockheed Faces Costly Setbacks as Fighter Jet Future Dims
Lockheed Martin is facing mounting financial strain after more than $3.6 billion in charges over the past three quarters, raising fresh concerns about its ability to manage costs on complex defense programs. The aerospace contractor, long seen as a disciplined operator, has struggled with overruns on classified missile and aeronautics projects, revealing the risks of fixed-price contracts in an inflationary environment.
The company’s flagship F-35 program has been another sore spot. Software delays tied to the Technology Refresh 3 upgrade led to a yearlong delivery halt and added more than $1 billion in costs. Meanwhile, the Pentagon has cut its near-term fighter purchases in half, and key European allies are reconsidering orders, which is undercutting the jet’s export momentum.
Compounding the pressure, Lockheed has lost out on both the Navy’s F/A-XX and the Air Force’s Next Generation Air Dominance programs—leaving the company largely sidelined from the next wave of fighter development. The twin defeats highlight the challenge of sustaining growth as U.S. and allied demand for manned aircraft shifts elsewhere.
Lockheed is now leaning more heavily on missile systems, hypersonic weapons, and its planned Golden Dome missile defense program. While those businesses promise steady demand, the Golden Dome’s architecture remains undefined, limiting near-term visibility. Still, the company has reaffirmed its $6.6 billion to $6.8 billion free cash flow outlook for 2025, offering support for shareholder returns even as earnings forecasts come under pressure.
For investors, the stock remains a bet on Lockheed’s ability to stabilize execution. Analysts see limited upside in the near term, but bullish forecasts for 2026 suggest the shares could recover if management reins in costs and capitalizes on missile defense growth. Failure to do so risks leaving its “golden dome” as little more than a cover for fading fighter ambitions.
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