Coal Expansion Outpaces Cancellations Threefold Ahead of COP31

New figures from German environmental group Urgewald’s annual coal industry database reveal that new coal development is being approved at roughly three times the rate of cancellations worldwide, with 257 new projects entering planning in 2025 compared to 76 dropped. The full pipeline now includes 1,510 projects spanning power generation, mining, infrastructure and chemicals. Over 40 percent of tracked companies are actively expanding coal holdings, including 335 companies building 606 new coal power stations with a combined capacity above 740 gigawatts—roughly four times the total output of the entire U.S. coal power sector. Additionally, 357 firms are sinking or extending thermal coal mines in 39 countries, with planned annual output approaching 3.2 billion short tons, equal to 41% of current global thermal coal production.

The findings arrive at an uncomfortable moment for the climate agenda, as two of the countries most active in expanding coal use are set to host this year’s COP31 summit. Australia will chair the COP31 negotiations despite holding the third-largest pipeline of new thermal coal mining projects globally—around 49 mines or mine expansions in development domestically, 20 on previously undisturbed ground. The country is also the world’s second-largest coal exporter and remains among the few OECD nations that have not committed to a coal exit timeline, even after signing a fossil fuel phase-out roadmap at COP30 in Belém. Turkey, the other host, generated 34% of its electricity from coal in 2025, more than any other source, while channeling over $2.7 billion annually into coal support programs. This commitment gap extends well beyond the summit hosts: only 142 of all companies in Urgewald’s database have established phase-out dates covering their full coal portfolios—fewer than one in twenty tracked firms. Some tightening is visible in the financial sector, with more than 400 financial institutions introducing coal investment restrictions and European banks directing 46% less capital toward coal, but this has not yet translated into reduced activity at the project level.

Whether that trajectory is sufficient to slow new project announcements is the question COP31 will struggle to answer. The reality is that coal is unlikely to disappear from many countries’ energy mixes any time soon, which explains why businesses like Frontieras North America Inc. are still attracting significant investment into their programs. The report underscores the tension between climate commitments and ongoing coal expansion, highlighting the challenges facing global efforts to transition away from fossil fuels. As the world prepares for COP31, the data serves as a stark reminder of the gap between pledges and action, with major economies continuing to back coal despite international pressure.