Curated News
By: NewsRamp Editorial Staff
October 22, 2026
BHP Warns of Structural Copper Deficit from 2028
TLDR
- BHP's CFO forecasts a structural copper deficit from 2028, creating opportunities for producers like Numa Numa Resources to gain market share and benefit from rising prices.
- BHP expects copper demand to exceed 50 million metric tons by 2050, driven by digital infrastructure and clean energy, while supply growth lags due to declining existing deposits.
- Addressing the copper supply gap is crucial for advancing clean energy and digital infrastructure, which will improve global living standards and sustainability.
- BHP plans to boost copper output to about 2 million metric tons by 2035 through expansions at Copper South Australia, Escondida, and the Vicuna joint venture.
Impact - Why it Matters
Copper is a critical input for the global economy, powering everything from electrical grids and electric vehicles to data centers and renewable energy systems. A sustained supply deficit could drive prices higher, increasing costs for manufacturers, utilities, and consumers, while accelerating investment in new mining projects and exploration. For investors, the forecast signals long-term opportunities in copper producers and explorers, as well as risks for industries heavily dependent on the metal. BHP’s expansion plans and the potential emergence of new suppliers underscore the strategic importance of securing copper supply chains for the clean energy transition and digital infrastructure build-out.
Summary
Vandita Pant, Chief Financial Officer of BHP, warned at the FT Metals and Mining Summit in London that the global copper market could face a sustained supply deficit starting in 2028. She projected that by the mid-2030s, the shortfall would equal the output of eight to ten mines the size of Escondida, the world’s largest copper producer. Pant attributed the gap to declining production from existing deposits and rising demand from traditional sources of consumption such as population growth, urbanization, and industrial development, now compounded by digital infrastructure, artificial intelligence, electricity networks, and clean energy. Global copper demand is projected to exceed 50 million metric tons annually by 2050, with data centers alone consuming roughly 3 million metric tons per year. Pant distinguished the long-term structural deficit from short-term imbalances caused by mine disruptions and missed production targets. The International Copper Study Group recently lowered its forecast for global mine production growth to 1.3% for the year, though it expects over 3% growth in 2027.
BHP, the world’s largest copper producer, is expanding its focus on the metal, which accounted for over 50% of its underlying EBITDA for the first time in the 2025/26 financial year. The company aims to increase attributable copper output to about 2 million metric tons by 2035, with average annual growth of around 5% in copper-equivalent production from 2026/27 to 2034/35. Planned initiatives include expansions at Copper South Australia and Escondida, plus the Vicuna joint venture and the Resolution project in the U.S. If the predicted shortage materializes, entities like Numa Numa Resources Inc. could benefit from higher demand and prices if their exploration and development reach production. The announcement was distributed by MiningNewsWire, a specialized communications platform for the global mining and resources sectors, part of the Dynamic Brand Portfolio @ IBN.
Source Statement
This curated news summary relied on content distributed by InvestorBrandNetwork (IBN). Read the original source here, BHP Warns of Structural Copper Deficit from 2028
