HKTDC Upgrades 2026 Export Forecast to Above 20% Growth

The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) has upwardly revised its 2026 export forecast to year-on-year growth of above 20%, driven by a stronger-than-expected performance and sustained global demand for technology products. The HKTDC Export Confidence Index (2Q26) shows improvement, with the Current Performance Index at 51.0 and the Expectation Index at 52.4, both rebounding above the 50 threshold, reflecting improved exporter sentiment amid evolving US trade policies and geopolitical developments. Bruce Pang, HKTDC Director of Research, highlighted that the upturn is supported by resilient regional trade and the AI-driven technology cycle, with the Chinese Mainland and ASEAN remaining the most promising markets, while sentiment towards the US market strengthened following the Xi-Trump meeting in mid-May.

In the first five months of 2026, Hong Kong’s exports surged 36.2% year-on-year, underpinned by strong demand for electronics, which accounted for over 70% of total exports. The proliferation of AI applications, including generative AI and enterprise digitalisation, has triggered demand for high-performance chips, ICT equipment, and related components, boosting Hong Kong’s re-export trade to the Chinese Mainland, ASEAN, and developed markets. However, a notable portion of growth has been price-driven due to tight supply conditions in the semiconductor sector, leading to significant increases in component prices, especially memory chips and advanced processors. Wing Chu, HKTDC Deputy Director of Research, noted that while export values have risen faster than order volumes, as production capacity expands and supply constraints ease, semiconductor prices are expected to moderate, potentially softening export value growth over the longer term.

Hong Kong continues to play a critical role as a regional trading hub, facilitating the flow of electronic parts and semi-manufactured goods across Asian supply chains. Kenneth Lee, HKTDC Section Head of Special Projects & Business Advisory, added that steady overseas demand for consumer products has provided further support. Looking ahead, uncertainties such as geopolitical tensions, volatility in global energy prices, and policy uncertainties could weigh on trade performance. For more details, refer to the 2026 Mid-Year Export Review and Outlook and the HKTDC Export Confidence Index 2Q26.