HKTDC Raises 2026 Export Forecast to 42-47% on AI Boom

The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) has significantly upgraded its forecast for Hong Kong's merchandise export growth in 2026 to 42%-47%, driven by stronger-than-expected global demand for artificial intelligence (AI)-related technologies. The revision follows a surge in exports of semiconductors, memory chips, computer components, and telecommunications equipment, which expanded much faster than anticipated. Electronics alone accounted for approximately 80% of Hong Kong's total exports in the first eight months of 2026, rising 52.8% year-on-year, with major markets including the Chinese Mainland, ASEAN, and the US. According to Bruce Pang, HKTDC Director of Research, this boom has provided substantial support to Hong Kong's exports. The HKTDC Export Confidence Index (3Q26) shows exporter sentiment remains positive, with the Current Performance Index at 51.8 and the Expectation Index at 51.3, both above the neutral 50-point threshold.

Despite evolving US trade policies, including a 12.5% Section 301 tariff imposed in July on imports from various trading partners, Hong Kong's exports to the US have remained resilient, rising 63.4% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2026. Bruce Pang noted that a substantial share of these exports consists of products covered by tariff exemption arrangements, particularly in technology and electronics. Recent developments, such as the September Xi-Trump meeting and the extension of the trade truce until January 2027, along with a US$30 billion Reciprocal Tariff Reduction Arrangement, have helped ease bilateral trade tensions. Meanwhile, Wing Chu, HKTDC Deputy Director of Research, highlighted that regional manufacturing networks spanning the Chinese Mainland and ASEAN remain highly active, supporting vigorous trade flows throughout Asia. Hong Kong's trade profile is also undergoing a structural transformation, with exports increasingly concentrated in high-value, technology-intensive products such as integrated circuits and advanced telecommunications equipment, and a growing reliance on air freight. Kenneth Lee, HKTDC Section Head of Special Project & Business Advisory, cautioned that exporters still face headwinds like geopolitical tensions and rising protectionism, but international consumption has remained resilient, sustaining demand for sectors such as clothing, watches and clocks, and jewellery.