Heart Valve Disease Deaths Rising Again Among U.S. Seniors

New preliminary research presented at the American Heart Association’s Scientific Sessions 2026 reveals a troubling reversal: after nearly two decades of decline, death rates from valvular heart disease among U.S. adults aged 65 and older have risen by nearly 5% from 2018 to 2023, climbing from 104 to 109.2 deaths per 100,000 people. The study, led by Dr. Hritvik Jain, a resident physician at Allegheny General Hospital in Pittsburgh, analyzed CDC WONDER data from 1999 to 2023 covering more than 1.2 million heart valve disease-related deaths. The researchers found that the death rate had fallen from a high of 123.2 per 100,000 in 1999 to its lowest levels just before the pandemic, but then reversed course. Disparities are stark: men had higher death rates than women (124.7 vs. 103.1 per 100,000), non-Hispanic white adults had the highest rates among racial/ethnic groups (122.4 per 100,000), and nonmetropolitan areas had higher rates than metropolitan areas (120.5 vs. 110.1 per 100,000). Adults aged 85 and older had more than 15 times the death rate of those aged 65-69 in 1999. Using Joinpoint regression software and ARIMA models, the researchers project that death rates will remain elevated around 109.2 per 100,000 through 2040 rather than continuing to decline.

“The decades-long decline in deaths from heart valve disease has stopped,” Jain said, emphasizing the need for earlier detection, timely treatment, and equitable access to specialized valve care, particularly for the oldest adults and rural communities. The American Heart Association has launched initiatives such as Target: Aortic Stenosis™ and the Heart Valve Initiative to improve diagnosis and care. Dr. Sreekanth Vemulapalli of Duke University noted the alarming disconnect between therapeutic innovations and population-level outcomes, highlighting the need for quality improvement and education. The study is preliminary and not yet peer-reviewed.