Curated News
By: NewsRamp Editorial Staff
October 15, 2025
GBA Business Confidence Hits Multi-Year High Amid Trade Truce Extension
TLDR
- Standard Chartered's GBAI shows business confidence at multi-year highs, offering companies competitive advantages through increased new orders and profit expectations amid trade stability.
- The Standard Chartered GBAI methodology surveys 1000+ companies quarterly, measuring eight sub-indices that track current performance and expectations across multiple business sectors.
- Improved business confidence across the Greater Bay Area creates economic stability that supports job security and community prosperity through sustained trade dialogue.
- Hong Kong showed the strongest confidence surge with an 8.3 point jump, while companies combat excessive competition through brand building and value-added services.
Impact - Why it Matters
This development matters because the Greater Bay Area represents one of China's most economically dynamic regions, serving as a crucial barometer for Asian business sentiment and global trade flows. The significant improvement in business confidence indicators suggests reduced economic headwinds following the extended US-China trade truce, which could signal improved conditions for international companies operating in or trading with China. The data indicates potential stabilization in supply chains and manufacturing activity, affecting everything from consumer goods pricing to corporate investment decisions worldwide. For investors and businesses with exposure to Asian markets, these confidence metrics provide critical insights into near-term economic performance and risk assessment. The findings also highlight how geopolitical developments directly translate into business sentiment, demonstrating the interconnected nature of international trade relations and corporate planning.
Summary
The latest Standard Chartered Greater Bay Area Business Confidence Index (GBAI), jointly released by Standard Chartered and the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC), reveals a significant broad-based recovery in business sentiment across the Greater Bay Area during the third quarter of 2025. The quarterly survey, conducted from early August to early September, showed both the "current performance" index rising to 54.7 from 53.1 in Q2 and the "expectations" index climbing to 55.7 from 52 in Q2, marking four-year and two-year highs respectively. This recovery appears strongly supported by reduced external uncertainty following the extension of the US-China trade truce by another 90 days to November, along with multiple trade agreements reached with major trading partners during the survey period.
Key findings from the survey demonstrate remarkable improvements across multiple business indicators. For current performance, six of eight index components showed quarter-on-quarter improvement, led by a sharp 8-point increase in "new orders" (rising to 57.5 from 49.5) and a 4.1-point increase in "prices of finished goods/services" (reaching 58.8 from 54.7). The optimism in business outlook was even more pronounced, with all expectations sub-indices staying well above the neutral mark. Production/sales saw the strongest rebound among the eight main sub-indices with a 5.3-point increase, followed by financing scale (+4.8 points), fixed asset investment (+4.2 points), and profit (+3.9 points). Irina Fan, Director of Research at HKTDC, noted that Hong Kong saw the strongest rise in confidence among all GBA cities, with current performance and expectations sub-indices increasing by 8.3 and 7.3 points respectively, supported by continued trade frontloading and robust financial activities.
The survey also addressed the growing concern about "anti-involution" or excessive competition among businesses. While most respondents (63.5%) indicated they hadn't been affected by excessive domestic competition, approximately 29% reported moderate impact and 5% indicated significant impact. Among affected businesses, over 70% saw negative impacts on profit and sales. Companies are adopting multiple strategies to address these challenges, including brand building and marketing (36.3%), cost control and inventory management (35.6%), and providing value-added services (29.7%). Hunter Chan, Economist for Greater China at Standard Chartered, emphasized that despite the current optimism, persistent trade uncertainty may hold back business sentiment again, with 24.5% of GBA corporates exploring overseas markets to mitigate potential risks. The GBAI represents the first forward-looking quarterly survey examining business sentiment across the GBA, compiled from responses of more than 1,000 companies across various sectors including manufacturing, trading, retail, wholesale, financial services, professional services, and innovation and technology.
Source Statement
This curated news summary relied on content disributed by NewMediaWire. Read the original source here, GBA Business Confidence Hits Multi-Year High Amid Trade Truce Extension
