Florida Keys Real Estate Averages Mislead as Market Splits

Aggregate price data for the Florida Keys are painting a picture that reflects few actual transactions, according to a leading local real estate expert. Sandy Tuttle, founder of Island Welcome Real Estate, explains that a handful of high-end sales have skewed averages and medians upward, while a larger segment of older canal homes is experiencing price corrections. This divergence means that headline numbers mislead both buyers and sellers. The market has evolved from a uniform stock of small, modest homes to a bifurcated landscape with a new category of luxury properties (4,000-10,000 square feet) built to modern code, alongside aging inventory. Tuttle notes record-breaking sales in the Lower Keys at $12-$13 million and in Islamorada at $20-$22 million, which are outliers against a typical price of around $1.5 million. Conversely, canal homes under $1 million are seeing high inventory, low demand, and longer days on market. The result is that price-per-square-foot tools and market-wide averages are unreliable. Tuttle advocates for segment-level analysis, focusing on the specific price range and property type a client is interested in, to provide accurate guidance. As new construction continues, the gap between segments is expected to widen, making overall averages even less useful. Tuttle, who has lived in the Keys since 1997 and worked in real estate for about 20 years, emphasizes the need for local context to interpret the market correctly.