Curated News
By: NewsRamp Editorial Staff
December 02, 2025
Economist Forecasts 2026: No Deep Recession but Slower Growth Amid AI and Fragmentation
TLDR
- Investors can gain advantage by focusing on digitalization, energy transition, and supply chain diversification sectors while managing risks in a higher interest rate environment.
- Dr. Merinson's analysis uses macroeconomic data to project modest 2026 GDP growth with inflation converging toward targets and central banks shifting to cautiously accommodative monetary policies.
- Targeted investments in digital infrastructure, green energy, and human capital can boost long-term growth and support workers through structural economic transitions.
- AI-driven productivity gains will reshape finance, healthcare, and manufacturing, creating new high-skill roles while compressing routine analytical positions.
Impact - Why it Matters
This forecast matters because it provides a critical roadmap for navigating the global economy in 2026, a period marked by significant structural shifts. For individuals, it signals a labor market where AI adoption may disrupt certain roles while creating new opportunities in tech-complementary positions, emphasizing the need for skills adaptation. Businesses must prepare for higher funding costs, supply chain reconfigurations due to geopolitical tensions, and the imperative to integrate AI for competitiveness. Investors can use this analysis to identify sectors like digitalization and energy transition that may outperform, while managing risks from policy uncertainty. On a broader scale, the prediction of persistent fragmentation and slower growth highlights challenges to global stability and prosperity, urging policymakers to craft smart fiscal strategies and social safety nets. Understanding these trends is essential for making informed personal, professional, and financial decisions in an increasingly complex world.
Summary
In a comprehensive economic forecast for 2026, Dr. Merinson, an expert in Investment Banking, Corporate Finance, Financial Markets, Digital Currency, and AI applications, presents a nuanced outlook that avoids predicting a deep recession but warns of persistently below-average global growth. Drawing on macroeconomic data, central bank guidance, and market behavior, his prognosis suggests the world economy is adjusting to a new normal defined by higher interest rates, geopolitical fragmentation, and rapid technological change. The United States is expected to see moderate growth supported by consumer resilience and corporate tech investment, while Europe faces marginal improvement due to industrial weakness and energy challenges. China's trajectory will depend on balancing deleveraging with stimulus in key sectors.
On inflation, Dr. Merinson anticipates a continued global disinflation trend, with headline and core rates gradually converging toward central bank targets, though the "last mile" will be uneven. This backdrop will drive a decisive shift in monetary policy, with major central banks transitioning from aggressive tightening to cautiously accommodative stances, resulting in structurally higher funding costs than the pre-pandemic era. Geopolitical fragmentation will remain a defining feature, acting as a headwind to global integration and forcing companies to navigate complex regulatory landscapes while redesigning supply chains.
Simultaneously, rapid adoption of artificial intelligence and digital technologies emerges as a central swing factor, offering substantial potential for productivity gains in sectors like finance and manufacturing, though benefits will be gradual and uneven. For policymakers, the outlook underscores the need for balanced fiscal prudence and targeted investments in digital infrastructure and green energy. For investors and corporate leaders, 2026 will reward selectivity and strategic positioning in areas like digitalization and energy transition, requiring robust risk management in a complex environment. Dr. Merinson concludes that 2026 will be a year of transition, where success hinges on adapting to the end of cheap money and frictionless globalization.
Source Statement
This curated news summary relied on content disributed by 24-7 Press Release. Read the original source here, Economist Forecasts 2026: No Deep Recession but Slower Growth Amid AI and Fragmentation
